Squirrels, Hysteria and Markets

The squirrels are all going crazy. Their once-dependable fall staple of acorns is no where to be seen, and they are in a frenetic state. The abundant supply of carbohydrates, fats and proteins has simply not shown up this year. This hysteria is what some companies experience when they awaken to the fact that their most dependable and profitable market segment is no more.

Markets are not static – they evolve, grow, shrink, disappear, and are built. The challenge is to know when this may happen so you can be ready to take advantage of the new sustenance. Here are a few things that you can do to be sure you don’t end up like the squirrels.

• Having a deep understanding of your customers’ situations is the best starting point. After all, they have the problem and the money (usually). For instance, if you are selling 96-well screening thingamajigs and your customers have big backlogs, then there is an opportunity for you (or your competitors…)

• What is everybody else doing? I’m sure the squirrels quickly surmised that all their brethren were fighting them for the 3 acorns that fell on their acre. If your competitors are fiercely throwing all kinds of effort (and VP’s) at even small business opportunities, then something is afoul in your market.

• The good news is that markets do not tend to vaporize; the problems that were being addressed often just shift to new solutions. Similarly the squirrels are now all rushing to get sugar maple seeds stashed away. Capillary sequencing, HPLC, and shrink-wrapped software are in the process of being supplanted by NGS, UHPLC, and SAS. (next-generation sequencing, ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography, and software as a service, in case you were curious). People still need to buy stuff, just not the old stuff.

• The easiest way to get a sense of market reorganization is to look at some external factors. If the squirrels had realized that last year’s super-abundance would be followed by a lean year, they could have been better prepared (though this, of course, is beyond their walnut-sized brains). Trade show attendance, funding agencies’ programs, M&A activity, and capital raising are all good indicators of where the action is… and isn’t.

So when your dependable sources of nutrition are disappearing, be sure you know where to find your next pile of revenue. Like the trusty annual crop of acorns, things will change and you will need to adjust your diet.