Diesel Frogs and Market Timing

Working in the yard last weekend, I was disturbed by the foreign sound of a diesel engine idling somewhere out in the woods. I checked this out only to be relieved that it was merely the local wood frogs having their annual love fest in the vernal pools. Seems they have the uncanny ability to sense when the timing is just right such that they all migrate to these very large puddles and start their ‘quacking’, which in unison sounds like a diesel truck engine.

The timing and coordination of a whole bunch of frogs is similar to many of the dimensions that we must control in order for our companies and organizations to prosper. Though specific goals and targets are quite common metrics, larger time-sensitive factors must be also considered. Here are a few areas where the wood frogs can give us some guidance.

• Product development – with development cycles for research products of 1-2 years (and therapeutics 8-10 years!), it is critical that the market will still generate significant demand when you finally have the product ready
• Product launch – it is important to have the best market conditions when you do hit the GO button. For early success be sure that you can garner a good deal of attention from the press; that customers are in the correct budget cycle; and that the internal organization is properly aligned and poised
• Financing and cash flow – Though seemingly obvious, it is imperative that the timing of capital needs are conservatively aligned with the timing of cash coming in to the organization. Much better to have too much overlap than to miss it and stare into a black (or red) hole in your accounts
• Company sale – The M&A markets tend to run in cycles and today’s current bull run will not last forever. Soon companies will hold tight onto their precious reserves and wait for valuations to decline.

So as you awaken from your winter slumber and begin looking for new opportunities, it is important to evaluate the effect that timing can have on your success. You don’t want to be all alone in your quest for a mate.